(FARGO, ND) — The old saying goes “one day doesn’t make a trend” when it comes to the markets. However, as producers and traders search for some shred of optimism in the corn market, you can’t help but wonder if we are finding a bottom ahead of harvest.
New-crop December 2025 corn did dip below the $4.00 mark for a brief period this week but has since rallied back above that key psychological level. And export demand for corn continues as a sizable pace, as evidenced by a massive weekly export sales number of 3.163 million metric tons for the 2025/2026 new crop marketing year announced by USDA on Thursday, August 7th. (Which by the way, is the third highest all-time weekly, pre-marketing year volume. The new marketing year technically starts on September 1st.)
Could we be spurring enough corn demand at low prices to move the market higher?
Bryan Doherty, Senior Market Advisor at Total Farm Marketing said it’s a good question during Thursday’s episode of Market Talk.
“Good question. I’m not sure is the answer because there is a monster crop coming, but you can’t ignore 124 million bushels, actually 124 million and a half, so if we round up 125 million bushels onto the new crop corn sale, really, really good number there,” according to Doherty. “Sales to date, 464 million for the new crop, and that’s 17, a little over 17% of the expected for the entire year, and we’re not quite to the beginning of the year yet, which will start on September 1st, technically.”
Doherty added “I’ll call it a rare number, rare that we see over 100 million in any one week (for export sales). So it’s a reflection of the market responding to low prices, good value, generally weaker dollar than where it was seven months ago, and yet you’ve got a really good forecast for the upcoming crop. You’ve got above normal temperatures, above normal rainfall for I think three days in a row now on the six to 10 day outlook. That pushes this outlook for weather, at least rain in the forecast for pretty much the entire Midwest. That pushes that to mid-August, so you’re really getting on the home stretch. One more good rain a week or two from now finishes things out.”
When it comes to marketing grain in this type of environment, Doherty shared some great perspective.
“Marketing is as important now as ever. And so that’s my messaging,” said Doherty. “Just don’t take your foot off the pedal just because prices are low or bouncing a little bit and you’re just kind of, well, let’s just focus on harvest. Look at the carry in the market, work basis contracts, make phone calls, see what they can give you. If you deliver at a certain point, maybe you can get some good basis out of that. Now’s the time where sort of the tough got to get tough and get going and figure this out because it is a big supply year. We’ve got great looking crops. I love today’s export sales number because it’s rare.”
Watch the full conversation with Bryan Doherty and Jesse Allen on Market Talk below:
